Rasmussen New Hampshire Poll

mattb25

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Sunday September 19, 2004 · 9:03 PM PDT

2004/09/19 · 21:03

9/15/04, 500 LV, MOE +-4.5

Kerry 51
Bush 45
Nader 3

Bush Favorables: 47 favorable, 52 unfavorable
Kerry Favorables: 52 favorable, 48 unfavorable

Trust more to handle:

Gay Marriage: Kerry 43, Bush 35
Gun Control: Kerry 47, Bush 39
Economy: Kerry 51, Bush 43
National Defense: Kerry 49, Bush 46

Colorado

mattb25

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Sunday September 19, 2004 · 9:37 AM PDT

2004/09/19 · 09:37

CO was a state that I never really believed was in play, but a ton of recent data is causing me to reconsider; all of these recent numbers are just so similar.

Look at these polls below the fold: Read More

Rasmussen State Polling Roundup

mattb25

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Saturday September 18, 2004 · 3:53 PM PDT

2004/09/18 · 15:53

Lots of new stuff from Ras in the last couple days.

Daily Tracking Numbers (Sep 11-17, w/leaners)

Ohio: Bush 49, Kerry 48
Florida: Kerry 50, Bush 49
Pennsylvania: Kerry 50, Bush 47
Michigan: Kerry 52, Bush 45
North Carolina: Bush 56, Kerry 42

More below: Read More

Matt's State of the Race and Pollster Rankings (real long)

mattb25

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Friday September 17, 2004 · 12:17 AM PDT

2004/09/17 · 00:17

I started this as a comment in an earlier Gallup thread, and it got so long that I decided to post it as a diary. It's largely a stream-of-consciousness commentary on various polling outfits.

But as an intro, here's a quick take on where I think things stand in various battlegrounds (please feel free to ask if you want me to elaborate on my reasoning or if you disagree; I just don't want this post to be be book-length). This isn't based on strict averages, though averages plays a role; Bush's numbers relative to 50. 2000 State Polls and state trends also play a factor)

mattb25

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Tuesday September 14, 2004 · 8:24 PM PDT

2004/09/14 · 20:24

Haven't seen these commented on here yet. Reasonably encouaring given the time frame. Numbers include leaners.

VA, September 1-14:

Bush 51
Kerry 47

Favorables--

Bush: 53 favorable, 45 unfavorable
Kerry: 50 favorable, 49 unfavorable

Bush Job Approval--54

Right Track/Wrong TracK; 45 right, 51 wrong

Breakdown:
GOP: Bush 90, Kerry 9
DEM: Kerry 90, Bush 9
Other: Bush 49, Kerry 42

WI below the fold: Read More

Just to Cheer Some Folks Up

mattb25

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Thursday September 09, 2004 · 5:13 PM PDT

2004/09/09 · 17:13

This isn't to try and discount the other polling, but just to give folks some polling that they can feel a little better about this evening. Rasmussen's daily tracking polls for OH, FL, MI, and PA. Data from September 2-8 (yesterday was Sep 1-7) Read More

Rasmussen's New Daily Tracking for Key States: OH, FL, PA, MI, NC

mattb25

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Wednesday September 08, 2004 · 1:23 PM PDT

2004/09/08 · 13:23

Rasmussen has today introduced daily tracking polls for the following states: OH, MI, PA, FL, and NC. They are based on seven day rolling averages. The numbers reflect seven days before release date--so these initial polls are based on data from September 1-September 7. Hence, they ought to be reflecting pretty much a high water mark for Bush. The results, which I find encouraging, are in extended copy: Read More

My thoughts on the Time Poll

mattb25

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Friday September 03, 2004 · 9:34 PM PDT

2004/09/03 · 21:34

This is going to be a somewhat stream of consciousness analysis; not so much of the data in the poll, but of its circumstances. The bottom line for me is that while it's always worrisome to see any poll have Kerry 11 points down (amongst either LV or RV), I'm not gonna get truly alarmed until I see this validated in a minimum of two more polls (I say two more because it truly wouldn't shock me if CNN/Gallup has Bush up 15 in its LV poll). So, my thoughts are in the extended copy. Read More

Rasmussen's New "Daily Snapshot"

mattb25

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Wednesday September 01, 2004 · 1:14 PM PDT

2004/09/01 · 13:14

I'm not sure in general how seriously I take tracking polls (particulary ones that are run by a partisan R) but for what it's worth:

Rasmussen is now providing for premium members what it's calling a "daily snapshot." It includes 3-day rolling averages both nationally and in 16 battleground states (FL, PA, OH, MI, MO, WI, AZ, MN, OR, IA, AR, NV, NM, WV, ME, NH) for the following: horserace, horserace with leaners, Bush and Kerry favorability, and right/track wrong track. Additionally, it provides a 7-day rolling average for the aforementioned 16 states. They are apparently also going to be introducing daily tracking polls for several individual states, including OH, PA, FL, MI and NC and weekly tracking polls for a bunch of other states. More below: Read More

Large Columbus Dispatch OH Poll

mattb25

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Sunday August 29, 2004 · 6:20 PM PDT

2004/08/29 · 18:20

August 18-26, approx 3100 RV, MOE +-2

Kerry 46 (44)
Bush 46 (47)
Nader 2 (2)

Kerry has a slight lead in the two-way race in this sample, but the exact numbers aren't up yet (I infer this from the article noting that Nader is pulling more from Kerry than Bush) In the prior poll, Bush led 47-45 in a two-way. Here's the link:

http://www.dispatch.com/news-story.php?story=dispatch/2004/08/29/20040829-A1-00.html

More info below: Read More

Research 2000 FL: Kerry 47, Bush 46

mattb25

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Sunday August 29, 2004 · 4:01 PM PDT

2004/08/29 · 16:01

Aug 23-25, 600 LV, MOE +-4.

Last sample was Kerry 49, Bush 44, so, mirroring other polls, there's been some closure. But I do find it mildly encouraging that Bush hasn't moved ahead here. I continue to think that Kerry has probably stabilized (though I know Rasmussen wasn't great today, but I refuse to get too upset over day-to-day movements in a tracking poll. Also note that if you just take the top line numbers from the Rasmussen state polls, Kerry still wins an EV victory, with exactly 270 picks--he gains OH and loseS WI)

If Bush doesn't open up a consistent, across-the-polls lead of 5 or more, after the convention, he remains in terrible trouble, IMHO.

NBC News/WSJ Poll Analysis

mattb25

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Thursday August 26, 2004 · 11:38 PM PDT

2004/08/26 · 23:38

Most of you have seen the top line numbers: Bush 47, Kerry 45, Nader 3. Thought I'd provide some analysis of the key internals. What really jumps out is that while Kerry seems to have been temporarily nicked (it's my opinion that the damage isn't widespread or permanent, but we will have to see), Bush is still in desperate trouble. Folks just don't think he's doing a good job, and they don't like his policies. More below: Read More

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