I'm not sure in general how seriously I take tracking polls (particulary ones that are run by a partisan R) but for what it's worth:
Rasmussen is now providing for premium members what it's calling a "daily snapshot." It includes 3-day rolling averages both nationally and in 16 battleground states (FL, PA, OH, MI, MO, WI, AZ, MN, OR, IA, AR, NV, NM, WV, ME, NH) for the following: horserace, horserace with leaners, Bush and Kerry favorability, and right/track wrong track. Additionally, it provides a 7-day rolling average for the aforementioned 16 states. They are apparently also going to be introducing daily tracking polls for several individual states, including OH, PA, FL, MI and NC and weekly tracking polls for a bunch of other states. More below:
While I may not totally buy into Rasmussen, the guy does work hard; no one else puts out this much data every day. And for what it's worth, the first new data set is fairly encouraging:
*3 day rolling national average, w/o leaners: Bush 47.3%, Kerry 46.9%
Kerry has made up a little bit of ground in this sample as of late; on August 29, the 3-day average was Bush 47.6%, Kerry 45.2%.
*3 day rolling national average w/leaners:
Bush 48.8%, Kerry 48.1% (no trends on this one)
*3 day rolling battleground average w/o leaners: Kerry 49.2%, Bush 45.7% (no trends)
*3 day rolling battleground average w/leaners:
Kerry 49.9%, Bush 46.5% (no trends)
*3 day rolling national Bush favorables:
52.3% favorable, 46.7% unfavorable (5.6% spread)
*3 day rolling national Kerry favorables:
51.8% favorable, 46.1% unfavorable (5.7% spread)
*3 day rolling battleground Bush favorables:
51.4% favorable, 47.0% unfavorable (4.4% spread)
*3 day rolling battleground Kerry favorables:
52.3% favorable, 45.7% unfavorable (6.6% spread)
*3 day rolling national Right Track/Wrong Track:
39.5% right, 56.6% wrong
*3 day rolling battleground Right/Wrong Track:
36.5% right, 60.1% wrong
Obviously, I'm not going to post this stuff everday, but Rassmussen has told me that he doesn't mind the info being relayed from time to time. A couple other tidbits:
*Bush and Kerry 3-day rolling favorables amongst independents nationwide:
Bush-49.3% favorable, 48.3% unfavorable (1.0)
Kerry-51.3% favorable, 43.8% unfavorable (7.5)
*Weekly composite survey of 400 MI, OH, PA voters:
August 16-22: Kerry 50, Bush 44
August 23-29: Kerry 49, Bush 43
Interesting stuff to think about. I wouldn't want to bet my credility on the accuracy of Rasmussen's numbers, but coupled with the ICR/Excel poll, and the fact that Kerry knows his campaign screwed up a little as of late and is ready to go forward fighting, have me feeling pretty good today. I was also reviewing some of the recent polling and found that Fox has Kerry up 49-38 in battlegrounds, and NPR has it 52-43. Gallup, I believe, has Kerry with a 4 point lead in the swingers. Not too bad considering that we didn't have a great end of August.
And in my view, Dick Cheney in prime-time is like a paid Kerry advertisement amongst swing voters. Bring it on Dick.