New Time/CNN Battleground Numbers (CO, MI, PA, etc.)

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Wednesday September 24, 2008 · 1:20 PM PDT

2008/09/24 · 13:20

Sorry for the quickie polling diary--I will update or delete if/when more becomes available, but just wanted to share this bit of good news amidst McCain's tired stunt. Numbers below the fold:

mattb25

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Wednesday September 17, 2008 · 12:56 PM PDT

2008/09/17 · 12:56

So even though this whole site is (rightfully) breathing a big sigh of relief with this race moving back towards it natural state (a small Obama lead), I thought I'd step back about 3 days and address some of the worrying. Specifically, and for whatever it's worth, I've run comparisons on all of the state polling in selected battlegrounds taken between Septembr 1-September 17, 2004, and the same dates in 2008. I should note right at the top that the fact, demonstrated below, that in virtually every instance, Obama is running ahead of where Kerry was at this point in 2004, obviously isn't the end all be all. Kerry lost--and even if you believe he really won OH, there's no disputing a significant popular vote loss. So clearly Barack needs to outperform Kerry by a decent degree, and my glance at the numbers suggests that he's on pace so far. Bear in mind that all the numbers below are taken from polls conducted during what will almost without a doubt be the best polling period John McCain ever has in this race. Of course, I used the comparable '04 period, and since the '04 and '08 RNCs were similarly situated, the '04 numbers also capture something of a Bush high point.

If you've got enough time to sort through my babbling, please join me on the flip.

mattb25

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Thursday August 28, 2008 · 3:43 PM PDT

2008/08/28 · 15:43

I apologize in that I'm not sure I'm going to make it to three original paragraphs, but I thought it was probably significant enough to warrant the diary entry. Just another little bit of evidence that the first three nights of the DNC accomplished their purpose:

Susie Tompkins Buell, a major HRC fundraiser, who has become, in her own words, "the poster child, in the press, for the so-called Hillary holdouts" and who, until recently, had sworn not even to attend the Convention, found herself sufficiently persauded by the last few evenings to come out 100% behind BHO. Her piece, at Huffingtonpost, is certainly an enjoyable and relieving read:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

While this certainly seems to be the type of welcome news that the MSM will do everything they can to ignore, I can't tell you how pleasantly shocked i was to see this headlining The Page, where even moron Halperin goes out of his way to call it a "big deal."

Well done, Ms. Buell. Proud and glad to have you on board.

Why I wanted FL/MI Revotes--and What to Do Now

mattb25

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Tuesday March 18, 2008 · 11:43 AM PDT

2008/03/18 · 11:43

On pragmatic grounds, it disappointing to me, though not suprising, that MI and FL couldn't find a way to do a revote. To some extent, great, the rules will be enforced--after three years of law school, you'd hope that the idea of rules adjusting future behavior via creation of proper incentives would have taken hold, but frankly I could give a damn about '12 right now. I want to win this year. I'm an Obama supporter, but I'll support whoever wins the nomination, and given where this race is, I think revotes would've only helped for a few reasons (below the fold):

mattb25

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Monday March 17, 2008 · 10:10 AM PDT

2008/03/17 · 10:10

Having seen folks on here start to get panicky about national polls showing some McCain, movement, I thought I'd offer a few random, stream of consciousness observations. I'll say up front I started the campaign leaning towards Hillary--I initially shifted to Barack largely as a bandwagoner, on electability grounds. But as time has grown, so has the depth of my support. Despite that, I have never been a Hillary hater--until the last three weeks. The McCain endorsements and a campaign strategy that is now obviously clear to me (took me awhile to really believe it was systematic, rather than extemporaneous) based on exploiting racial divisions, I can barely stand the sight of her. But I'll still vote for her if she's the nominee. Some more specific thoughts about where things stand below the fold:

mattb25

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Wednesday January 30, 2008 · 12:33 AM PST

2008/01/30 · 00:33

So I’ve just encountered one too many "McCain slaughters Hillary" and "McCain slaughters Obama" and "McCain landslide" comments, and I thought I’d respond real fast. I apologize in that this is going to be pretty stream of consciousness, and I’m sorry if I lose folks early on. Basically, I argue that while McCain is probably the most formidable opponent that could have emerged from a truly horrible GOP field, the notion that he somehow can’t be beat or enters the general with a better than even chance of winning the presidency is, in my view, laughable. I don’t think the race is going to be a blow out—and we all know that if anyone can manage to throw away lots of potential advantages, it’s the Democratic nominee for president. But my view is that first, this is still shaping up as generally a democratic leaning year, and second, that McCain has plenty of awfully significant weaknesses that I don’t think folks are fully appreciating. I’m not denying that he has his strengths—and I don’t detail them here—but consider the following, for what its worth, below the fold.

mattb25

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Thursday February 17, 2005 · 6:32 PM PST

2005/02/17 · 18:32

Hey All--

I'm somewhat uncomfortable taking up diary space with a personal topic--but I've been touched to hear that folks have been asking about me the last few months, so I wanted to write a short note. Read More

Second-to-Last Electoral College Analysis

mattb25 for Daily Kos

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Sunday October 31, 2004 · 4:24 AM PST

2004/10/31 · 04:24

Elevated from the diaries by DemFromCT. It doesn't get more complete than this. WARNING: Data ahead (but you'll like the ending to this novel). The best thing is that it's a series. I can't wait for the next one.

Time for my second-to-last state poll analysis and electoral college projection (if you're someone who is really tired of poll analysis--and even I am half the time--you probably don't want to read this whole post). Also bear in mind that what follows (at least the numbers part) doesn't account for Osama--who, in my opinion, is highly unlikely to move the race at all, and if he does, it'll be detrimental to Bush. Basically what I've done:

Assigned Bush and Kerry their safe states
Briefly examine five states that are pretty strongly leaning Bush but could conceivably go Kerry: Missouri, Nevada, Colorado, West Virginia & Arkansas
Take a closer look at the nine states that, in my view, are 99% certain to determine the election: Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, New Mexico, & New Hampshire. Please note that I DO NOT consider these states toss-ups, like much of the ignorant SCLM does--but they are the states that the campaigns are playing for right now.

My Sense of Where Things Are

mattb25

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Friday October 22, 2004 · 6:46 PM PDT

2004/10/22 · 18:46

I began writing this basically as a pre-emptive strike (and also, hopefully--and more importantly-- encouragement) to the folks who are going to get worked up over the Time poll which shows Bush up 50-43 and with 53% job approval--but it turned out to be more of a general post on my sense of where the race is right now.

I'm no saying the Time poll is good news, but as with any single poll, it's not really worth much despair (or exuberance). One of the things that I like to do with a poll is see how consistent the movement in the internals is; that is, did job approval, favorables, move with the horserace numbers. In many scenarios, like after a convention or strong debste performance, you expect to see this. But when you've got a poll like Time, that polls every week, and you've had a week that was lacking in dramatic events, that kind of movement puts up a red flag for me. More below: Read More

Swing State Polling Roundup

mattb25

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Tuesday October 19, 2004 · 5:30 PM PDT

2004/10/19 · 17:30

Thought it was time for another swing state polling roundup. For an abbreviated list of battleground states, I've averaged all of the non-partisan polls conducted during the month of October. For results, see below. Methodology:

Straight mean average of non-partisan polls conducted in Ohio
For selected states, I've allocated undecideds
When I had a choice in a poll between RV and LV, I used RV
I've largely ignorned Nader and Badnarik so the results below should really be taken as the split of the two party vote. I'm operating under the assumption right now that the third parties are going to effect the candidates relatively equally.

Results: Read More

Chicago Trib Polls: OH, WI, MN, IA

mattb25

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Tuesday October 12, 2004 · 5:17 PM PDT

2004/10/12 · 17:17

Let me know if these have already been diared, and I'll take this one down; didn't see anything over the last 50 or so.

I've never come across polls done by the Tribune before, but these are pretty encouraging. For all four states, 500 LV, conducted 10/8-10/11, MOE +-4.4 (pretty high, so take these for what they're worth).

Ohio: Kerry 49, Bush 45
Wisconsin: Kerry 47, Bush 43, Nader 2
Minnesota: Kerry 45, Bush 43, Nader 2
Iowa: Bush 47, Kerry 45, Nader 1

More below. Read More

State-by-State Electoral Analysis (really long)

mattb25

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Wednesday September 22, 2004 · 5:58 PM PDT

2004/09/22 · 17:58

ARG's recent release of state polling from all 50 states and DC gave me some needed data for something I've been wanting to do for a little while: a detailed state-by-state electoral analysis.

Basically, what I've done for all 50 states is the following:

Note the 2000 Gore/Bush result
Take all of the polls conducted wholly in the month of September (whenever there was a choice between LV and RV numbers, I used RV; I also always chose 2-way numbers over 3-way when I had a choice)
Average those polls for each state.
Note whenever a poll was either partisan or Zogby Interactive, and re-compute averages with glaring outliers excluded.
Provide my far-from-expert analysis; this is basically a combination of the polling data, other key indicators, and gut feelings.
Assign a state to either Bush, Kerry, or toss-up, while keeping a running electoral scorecard.
Allocate toss-up states at the end.

More below. Read More

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New Time/CNN Battleground Numbers (CO, MI, PA, etc.)

How is Obama doing? 2004 v. 2008 (by the poll numbers)

Major Hillary Holdout Backs BHO

Why I wanted FL/MI Revotes--and What to Do Now

Some Random Election Thoughts

Why Not to Fear McCain

Hey

Second-to-Last Electoral College Analysis

My Sense of Where Things Are

Swing State Polling Roundup

Chicago Trib Polls: OH, WI, MN, IA

State-by-State Electoral Analysis (really long)