These polls aren't great, since they're taken over an entire month, and thus, aren't really a current snapshot. But good to see Kerry holding steady across the board:
NJ: Kerry 51, Bush 38 (Kerry 50, Bush 41)
MI: Kerry 50, Bush 44 (Kerry 49, Bush 43)
OR: Kerry 47, Bush 41 (Kerry 49, Bush 41)
I wouldn't be at all worried about Kerry "dropping" two points in OR--Bush is holding steady at a miserable 41, and it's more than likely just statistical noise. The dynamic of this race is really positive right now. Lots of supposedly swing states seem to have the potential to be locked up early: PA, MI, NM, OR. We'll have to wait until after the repub convention to know for sure, but if Kerry still has solid leads, then the campaign really will have accomplished its goal of shifting the battleground. Kerry will be able to focus on holding Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota, in that order. And go hard after OH, FL, MO, NH, WV, NV and also NC, VA, AR, AZ, CO, TN. Lots of opportunities. No bounce my ass.