Most of you have seen the top line numbers: Bush 47, Kerry 45, Nader 3. Thought I'd provide some analysis of the key internals. What really jumps out is that while Kerry seems to have been temporarily nicked (it's my opinion that the damage isn't widespread or permanent, but we will have to see), Bush is still in desperate trouble. Folks just don't think he's doing a good job, and they don't like his policies. More below:
*First of all, this poll never fails to oversample republicans; in this sample, 39% at least leans Republican, as opposed to 38% that at least leans Democratic; that's not a preposterous number, but it's definitely an R skew. Most typically, Dems and Dem leaners have about 3-4% advantage in a random sample. Moreover, this sample claims to have voted for Bush over Gore by 45% to 33%; it's not uncommon to see this (folks want to think they voted for the "winner"), but that's still a pretty high skew.
*Mirroring the Gallup results today, Bush's job approval ticked down, and disapproval ticked up. This sample had 47% approval and 48% disapproval; the prior sample had 48% approval and 46% disapproval.
*43% approve of Bush's handling of the economy, while 52% disapprove; those numbers are down from the prior sample, in which 45% approved and 49% disapproved.
*Bush's approval numbers on handling foreign policy haven't budged: 44% approve, 52% approve
*Bush's terror numbers have ticked up a little bit; 53% approve and 42% disapprove, as opposed to 48% approval and 47% disapproval in the prior sample. Most likely, in all honesty, 'caused by no high profile beheadings this month, and that's not something I'm gonna complain about.
*46% believe that Bush deserves re-election, while 50% think otherwise; Bush hasn't really moved at all on the first part in the last few rounds of this poll, but the 50% who don't think he deserves a second term is up from 47% in the last sample.
*The only real lousy news in this poll--and it mirrors others--is that Kerry's favorabliy spread has been nicked. Bush has a 49% favorable rating, and a 43% unfavorable; in the prior sample it was 48-43. Kerry has a 45% favorable rating and a 40% unfavorable; in the last sample, it was 42-35. This is probably where the Swifties have done their damage, but I'd frankly be shocked if its permanent. Kerry could raise his favorables 10 points overnight with a great debate performance.
*"Certain support" is Bush 44, Kerry 42; that's a slight uptick from the previous number of Bush 44, Kerry 40 (note again, this poll's horserace leans strongly R--Kerry has never led, not once)
*Kerry's percentage of definite voters is up markedly to 76%, from 64%.
*Kerry has more room to grow. Of those not supporting Kerry:
-10% say there's a fair chance they could vote Kerry
-10% say a small chance
-18% say a very slight change
-61% say no chance
This is a big number, folks; 38% of Bush voters haven't closed their minds entirely.
Same question for those not supporting Bush:
-6% say there's a fair chance of switching
-8% say small chance
-14% say a very slight chance
-71% say no chance
*When it comes to the economy, education, and health care, has GWB provided a clear set of goals or has he not done so yet?
-29% say clear goals
-63% say yet to spell out goals
*They ask, on a variety of issues, whether Bush has a) the right policy, b) the right policy but needing minor adjustments, c)questionable policy, needing major adjustments, and d) wrong policy, needs to be changed. I'm combining A and B as "right policy" and C and D as "wrong policy"
-Gas prices: 29% right policy, 59% wrong
-Stem Cells: 36% right, 51% wrong
-Health Care: 27% right, 58% wrong
-Social Security: 39% right, 50% wrong
-Jobs & Economy: 42% right, 55% wrong
-Taxes: 47% right, 48% wrong
-Iraq: 47% right, 51% wrong
-Gay Marriage: 47% right, 45% wrong
-Education: 52% right, 42% wrong (but only 23% chose option A)
-Terrorism: 58% right, 40% wrong
Terror is definitely the only real ace GWB has.
*On Cheney's effect on the vote: Dick makes 10% of folks more likely to vote for GWB, while he makes 25% less likely to do so.
*Only 41% think we are safer since 9/11; 27% now think we are less safe, up from 20% (trend is from 9/02)
*When it coems to foreign policy, should US leaders do what they think is best or consult with leaders of other countries?
20% do what they think is best
73% consult with allies
*43% think removing Saddam has been worth the cost, opposed to 49% who think it has not been worth it
*51% think it is appropriate to start talking about troop reductions, as opposed to 43% who think it's inappropriate
*Some of my favorite questions; pollsters give two statements, ask which one folks agree with more (I'm summarzing the statements):
-The Economy:
Statement A: Economy is improving for the middle and working class; 30% agree
Statement B: Economy not improving for the middle and working class: 61% agree
-The Tax Cuts:
Statement A: Tax Cuts benefited the wealthy; 55% agree
Statement B: Tax Cuts benefited all Americans; 38%agree
*43% want to leave social security alone, 41% support private accounts
All in all, not too bad--Kerry's taken a little hit, but by no means is Bush in a good position here. He has alot of work to do.