CO was a state that I never really believed was in play, but a ton of recent data is causing me to reconsider; all of these recent numbers are just so similar.
Look at these polls below the fold:
1) Rasmussen, 9/15/04, 500 LV, MOE +-4.3
Bush 46
Kerry 45
Nader 3
Badnarik 1
Perotouka 1
2) Public Opinion Strategies (R), 9/12-9/13, 500 LV, MOE +-4.3
Bush 45 (49)
Kerry 44 (40)
Nader 3 (4)
3) ARG, 9/10-9/13, 600 LV, MOE +-4
Bush 46
Kerry 45
Nader 3
4) Zogby Interactive, 9/1-9/7, 545 LV, MOE +-4.2
Bush 46
Kerry 46
5) SUSA, 8/14-8/16, 622 LV, MOE +-4
Bush 47
Kerry 47
Note that I basically consider all Zogby Interactive polls to be largely worthless, but it is another data in total agreement with the others, in this case.
All these polls have a pretty big MOE, but it's also five data points with nearly identical results, and no data points in months offering a contradiction. Those are low numbers for Bush; if someone showed me those top-lines, told me they came from the past week or so, but didn't tell me the state, I would say that Bush had little chance to carry whatever state that might be.
Is Kerry even on the air in CO anymore? Maybe the campaign internals are showing something different, but these numbers scream toss-up.