Rasmussen has today introduced daily tracking polls for the following states: OH, MI, PA, FL, and NC. They are based on seven day rolling averages. The numbers reflect seven days before release date--so these initial polls are based on data from September 1-September 7. Hence, they ought to be reflecting pretty much a high water mark for Bush. The results, which I find encouraging, are in extended copy:
*Note--Ras has not yet released the info on sample size or MOE, so we'll have to wait to see how seriously to consider these polls.
OHIO: Kerry 48%, Bush 46%
Bush favorables: 49 favorable, 49 unfavorable
Kerry favorables: 53 favorable, 45 unfavorable
Breakdown by Party ID:
GOP: Bush 89, Kerry 9
DEM: Kerry 86, Bush 11
OTHER: Kerry 50, Bush 32
Right Track/Wrong Track: 42 right, 52 wrong
FLORIDA: Kerry 47%, Bush 47%
Bush Favorables: 50 favorable, 50 unfavorable
Kerry Favorables: 53 favorable, 46 unfavorable
Breakdown by Party ID:
GOP: Bush 90, Kerry 9
DEM: Kerry 75, Bush 16
Other: Kerry 62, Bush 27
Right Track/Wrong Track: 42 right, 54 wrong
PENNSYLVANIA: Kerry 48%, Bush 46%
Bush favorables: 51 favorable, 48 unfavorable
Kerry favorables: 51 favorable, 48 unfavorable
Breakdown by Party ID:
GOP: Bush 81, Kerry 14
DEM: Kerry 74, Bush 22
Other: Kerry 71, Bush 17
Right Track/Wrong Track: 39% right, 55% wrong
MICHIGAN: Bush 47%, Kerry 46%
Bush favorables: 49 favorable, 51 unfavorable
Kerry favorables: 52 favorable, 45 unfavorable
Breakdown by Party ID:
GOP: Bush 94, Kerry 4
DEM: Kerry 82, Bush 14
Other: Kerry 46, Bush 37
Right Track/Wrong Track: 38% right, 58% wrong
NORTH CAROLINA: Bush 55%, Kerry 40%
Bush favorables: 63% favorable, 35% unfavorable
Kerry favorables: 41% favorable, 58% unfavorable
Breakdown by Party ID
GOP: Bush 86, Kerry 10
Dem: Kerry 67, Bush 27
Other: Bush 59, Kerry 37
Right Track/Wrong Track: 48% right, 43% wrong
My instant analysis:
- on the whole, awfully encouraging, but we'll have to see how this polling stacks up against the aggregate for each state to assess validity, etc.
- the OH, FL, and PA numbers are great news considering when the poll was taken.
- I wouldn't be too worried about MI. Bush is at 47 with a totally consolidated GOP base; he probably doesn't have much more room. Kerry has a significantly better favorable spread, and the right track numbers are awful. I'd say that the MI horserace number is either a high water mark for Bush or it'll be shown to be relatively outlying.
- Disappointing in NC, but not unexpected, IMHO. Now, I don't think Bush will win there by 15, or even by 10. But it is a red-leaning state, and that's where Bush's bounce came from: the red states. That's why he's moved ahead in some national polls while remaining behind in battlegrounds.
Overall, encouraging. If this is the high water mark for Bush then he did himself very little good.