On pragmatic grounds, it disappointing to me, though not suprising, that MI and FL couldn't find a way to do a revote. To some extent, great, the rules will be enforced--after three years of law school, you'd hope that the idea of rules adjusting future behavior via creation of proper incentives would have taken hold, but frankly I could give a damn about '12 right now. I want to win this year. I'm an Obama supporter, but I'll support whoever wins the nomination, and given where this race is, I think revotes would've only helped for a few reasons (below the fold):
- It looks like this is going long anyway. I do think it's clear that if Obama wins PA, truly overwhelming pressure will be brought to bear on HRC to drop out, and that'll be it. But while I think it's possible, and that the race in PA will certainly tighten, that's a tough slog. And if HRC wins PA, unless there's mass movement amongst the supers to Obama to settle this thing, we're going to Puerto Rico. And if that's the case, even though it'll cost money, the race ought to be brought to MI and FL. They're both obviously hugely critical states--but I think this matters more in regards to MI. First, MI is absolutely at the core of any blue electoral map. The dem nominee can win without FL--winning without MI will be close to impossible. So if I have a chance to A) let Michigan get pumped about the democratic race and take a close look at Obama in particular and B) to eliminate any possibility of the repubs using a disenfranchisemt argument to their benefit, I'm taking it. The biggest downside of this, of course, is that it gives HRC another chance to move the goal posts if she manages to lose PA--so it's not open and shut in my mind, but I still see alot of positives. And I should emphasize again that the only reason I adamanatly would've been for revotes is the timing. It's not that I truly fear that MI and FL dems are going to stay home over this--by and large, if they were active/passionate enough to turn out for a democratic primary which many, if not most, knew was wouldn't count, in the end, they'll come home in the general. But if this race must slog on, I'd say the time is better spent in MI and FL, rather than Puerto Rico--with no disrespect intended, I'm thinking purely in terms of electoral votes.
- Again, as an Obama supporter, I want to see who would win those states, fairly contested. Ideologically, I'll always be for Obama. Emotionally, I can barely stand the thought of HRC right now. And I do basically believe that the supers must, and will, ratify the elected delegate vote--but I also do think its a sliding scale, and that the duty to ratify increases proportionally with the margin. Thinking only as a democratic political strategist, suppose HRC wins PA--she then runs decently in NC and wins IN, WV, and KY, and closes the gap in OR. If HRC can repeat her FL and MI "victories" in a contested race, that's something I want to know. And if she goes on that kind of roll, and inches ahead in the popular vote while closing within 30-50 delegates, pragmatically speaking, she'd have a case. She just would. But most significantly, because I do think Obama will be the nominee, and because this thing is gonna go awhile yet, I would've liked to have gotten him into those states, and to have put to rest any potential for the MSM and HRC to paint him as the "anti-count every vote candidate" when we all know exactly the opposite to be true.
- This may catch me some flak, but even as an Obama guy, I'm not totally opposed to seating the FL delegation as is. A bold--and controversial and maybe hopelessly naive. I don't know--idea that I've been thinking about is Obama just coming out and saying that he really regrets he didn't get the chance to campaign in FL--that he's certain he would have done quite well had he had the chance, and he looks forward to getting the chance in the general. But in the interests of the 1.8 million Floridians who turned out, with all the candidates on the ballot--and because he is so comfortable with his pledged delegate margin that he believes it to be insurmountable with or without the Fl results, that he'll support the seating of the FL delegates as allocated. It's just a thought--but if played right, I think it could do a ton to emphasize the character differences between Obama and Hillary, give Obama a big boost amongst FL dems, and, most importantly, demonstrate to the supers why he's the candidate to unify the party. It's crazy, but it just might work.