ARG's recent release of state polling from all 50 states and DC gave me some needed data for something I've been wanting to do for a little while: a detailed state-by-state electoral analysis.
Basically, what I've done for all 50 states is the following:
- Note the 2000 Gore/Bush result
- Take all of the polls conducted wholly in the month of September (whenever there was a choice between LV and RV numbers, I used RV; I also always chose 2-way numbers over 3-way when I had a choice)
- Average those polls for each state.
- Note whenever a poll was either partisan or Zogby Interactive, and re-compute averages with glaring outliers excluded.
- Provide my far-from-expert analysis; this is basically a combination of the polling data, other key indicators, and gut feelings.
- Assign a state to either Bush, Kerry, or toss-up, while keeping a running electoral scorecard.
- Allocate toss-up states at the end.
More below.
A few assumptions I make in my commentary:
-Bush's current standing in a particular state relative to 50 is just as important as the Bush-Kerry average margin in predicting a winner.
-Changing demographics and voter turnout will play huge roles, that much of the polling isn't capturing.
-Third party candidates like Badnarik, Perotouka, and even Nader have, in some key states, an equal or more likely potential to take from Bush than from Kerry.
All 50 states are below and it's pretty long. Any comments or questions are welcome. And if you don't feel like reading the whole thing, my conclusion:
Kerry 291, Bush 247
******************
1) ALABAMA (9 EV)
*2000: Bush 56.4, Gore 41.6
*9/2004 average: Bush 54.5, Kerry 41.5 (two polls)
Analysis: Obviously safe Bush.
Bush 9, Kerry 0
2) ALASKA (3 EV)
*2000: Bush 58.6, Gore 27.7
*9/2004 average: Bush 57, Kerry 30 (1 poll)
Analysis: As red as they come, but hopefully lots of split tickets to boost Knowles.
Bush 12, Kerry 0
3) ARIZONA (10 EV)
*2000: Bush 51.0, Gore 44.7
*9/2004 Average: Bush 50.5, Kerry 42.0 (4 polls)
Poll Note: One of these polls is ZI. One of the polls, from the Arizona Republic, is the most outlying of the group, giving Bush a 16 point lead; this poll was conducted 9/3-9/5, immediately following the convention. If eliminated from the average, the number moves to Bush 49.3, Kerry 43.3.
Analysis: Lots of future potential here, and, like many Southwestern states, polls any way based on prior turnout are unlikely to be capturing the full demographic shifts that have taken place, and are favorable to Dems. But in a close race in 2004, I suspect this one stays red.
Bush 22, Kerry 0
4) ARKANSAS (6 EV)
*2000: Bush 51.3, Gore 45.9
*9/2004 Average: Bush 47.5, Kerry 46.0 (2 polls)
Poll Note: One ZI poll.
Analysis: Looking back at every Arkansas poll from mid-June to the present (12 polls), Bush has yet to be above 50 anywhere. I've felt from early in the cycle that AR was probably the most likely Southern pickup. Clinton is a wild-card here. I'm putting it in the toss-up column, which I'll allocate at the end.
Bush 22, Kerry 0 (6 tossup)
5) CALIFORNIA (55 EV)
*2000: Gore 53.5, Bush 41.7
*9/2004 Average: Kerry 53.3, Bush 41.3 (3 polls)
Analysis: Nice and safe in the blue column. I actually think Kerry will run slightly better than Gore here, due to a highly energized base--I hope so, b/c that'll go a long ways to drumming up Kerry's popular vote, and even if the PV doesn't determine the outcome, I want Kerry running as high as possible.
Kerry 55, Bush 22 (6 toss-up)
6) COLORADO (9 EV)
*2000: Bush 50.8, Gore 42.4, Nader 5.25
*9/2004 Average: Bush 46.5, Kerry 45.3 (4 polls)
Poll Notes: One ZI poll.
Analysis: This state surprises me more than any, but in reading Winger's excellent diary (be sure to read it here), it becomes readily apparent that CO is absolutely in play. September has easily been Bush's best polling month, and he's not even averaging 47 here. My sense of CO is that while Repubs have the registration advantage, a large percentage of those are of a paleo-con or libertarian orientation; hence, I find it likely that both Nader and Badnarik will hurt Bush this time around. Moreover, the state's unemployment rate (noted by Winger) has doubled, and the demographics have shifted in the Dems' favor. Kerry is leading independents in each of the four polls conducted in September. This one is a pure toss-up.
Kerry 55, Bush 22 (15 toss-up)
7) CONNECTICUT (7 EV)
*2000: Gore 55.9, Bush 38.4
*9/2004 Average: Kerry 54, Bush 39 (1 poll)
Analysis: Safely blue--but don't be shocked if Bush runs slightly better here than in 2000. It's a 9/11 state, and its economy has done well.
Kerry 62, Bush 22 (15 toss-up)
8) DELAWARE (3 EV)
*2000: Gore 55.0, Bush 41.9
*9/2004 Average: Kerry 50, Bush 41 (1 poll)
Analysis: Safe Kerry; only one poll done the whole cycle, so difficult to ascertain what the final results will really look like; but the one poll points to a nearly identical outcome, with undecideds allocated.
Kerry 65, Bush 22 (15 toss-up)
9) DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA (3 EV)
*2000: Gore 85.2, Bush 9.0
*9/2004 Average: Kerry 78, Bush 11 (1 poll)
Analysis: As safe as you get.
Kerry 68, Bush 22 (15 tossup)
10) FLORIDA (27 EV)
*2000: Gore 48.85, Bush 48.84
*9/2004 Average: Bush 48.25, Kerry 47.25 (4 polls)
Poll Note--One ZI.
Analysis: First of all, this state is obviously incredibly difficult to poll right now. But basically, if this were any other state, I'd give it to Kerry right now. Consider the following.
-If voters in 2000 had voted their intentions, Gore would have amassed at least another 50,000 votes, which would have given him at least a 1% victory.
-Nader will not come close to the 1.63% he pulled in 2000.
-Demographic shifts are strongly in our favor, with the percentage of Dem-leaning non-Cuban Hispanics outpacing the R-leaning Exurban communities.
-Dems are way ahead in the new voter registration battle.
-Bush has lost ground amongst both the Cuban-American population and the elderly (medicare, Jeb's ban on re-importing Canadian drugs); those folks don't have to shift in massive amounts to Kerry. But if even a small percentage shift, or they stay home, this state isn't nearly as close.
-Highly, highly energized base
-Kerry routinely leads amongst independents
-the 20,000+ strong Florida Firefighters' Union, which endorsed Bush in 2000, has endorsed Kerry; this helps with the ground game, and, more importantly, it provides muscle; many firehouses are polling places, and these guys could play a role in ensuring that voter intimidation is kept to an absolute minimum.
-The state is being watched: doesn't mean Jeb can't steal the election, but I think it's at least tougher for him to do it; if the race comes down to FL again, disenfranchisement charges are gonna be looked at more closely.
-My take on the hurricanes: I don't think they'll have a huge affect. But if they do, it won't be favorable to George. I haven't been through a real disaster (thank goodness), but I did see 9/11 up close; and my sense of that was that even if the government was doing a fantastic job of relief work, it was never really enough; it didn't leave folks feeling good in general. This whole point may be a stretch; but if there's going to be any hurricane affect beyond changing turnout (and I don't know enough about the state's geography to speculate) it'll be a "new direction' vote.
So, while I wouldn't want to bet my life on it, I'm saying that FL leans Kerry.
Kerry 95, Bush 22 (15 toss-up)
11) GEORGIA (15 EV)
*2000: Bush 54.7, Gore 43.0
*9/2004 Average: Bush 56.3, Kerry 39.5 (4 polls)
Poll Note: One poll is partisan R. Excluding it cuts the Bush lead to 55.7-41.0.
Analysis: This one could get ugly. Safe R.
Kerry 95, Bush 37 (15 toss-up)
12) HAWAII (4 EV)
*2000: Gore 55.8, Bush 37.5
*9/2004 average: Kerry 51, Bush 41 (1 poll)
Analysis: Safe Kerry. Don't know nearly enough about the mechanics of polling Hawaii to give a prediction on the extent of the victory.
Kerry 99, Bush 37 (15 toss-up)
13) IDAHO (4 EV)
*2000: Bush 67.2, Kerry 27.6
*9/2004 Average: Bush 59, Kerry 30 (1 poll)
Analysis: Scary.
Kerry 99, Bush 41 (15 tossup)
14) ILLINOIS (21 EV)
*2000: Gore 54.6, Kerry 42.6
*9/2004 Average: Kerry 51.5, Bush 42.3 (4 polls)
Analysis: The SUSA Poll is the outlier of the group. If you exclude it, Kerry leads 52.3-41.3. Bottom line, this one is gonna look almost identical to 2000; and with such a blowout Senate race, who knows what R turnout will look like.
Kerry 120, Bush 41 (15 tossup)
15) INDIANA (11 EV)
*2000: Bush 56.7, Gore 41.0
*9/2004 Average: Bush 56.0, Kerry 37.7 (3 polls)
Analysis: The first state called on election night. What's the matter with Indiana anyway?
Kerry 120, Bush 52 (15 toss-up)
16) IOWA (7 EV)
*2000: Gore 48.54, Bush 48.22
*9/2004 Average: Bush 48.0, Kerry 46.0 (6 polls)
Note: One partisan R poll, one ZI interactive, neither apparent outliers.
Analysis: IA was close last time, and no doubt will be close again. The most important fact, for me, is that during Bush's absolute high water mark, he doesn't make it to 50 (or even 49). I think that Kerry is aided here by the having gone through the Caucus process, mainly because voters knew and liked him once, and hence, I think it's more likely that those who want a change of direction will be able to feel comfortable with Kerry as an alternative. This is a pure toss-up right now.
Kerry 120, Bush 52 (22 tossup)
17) KANSAS (6 EV)
*2000: Bush 58.0, Kerry 37.2
*9/2004 average: Bush 58.5, Kerry 35.0 (2 polls)
Analysis: Read the Franks book.
Kerry 120, Bush 58 (22 tossup)
18) KENTUCKY (8 EV)
*2000: Bush 56.5, Gore 41.4
*9/2004 average: Bush 55.3, Kerry 38.7 (2 polls)
Analysis: Another one called at 6 p.m. on 11/2.
Kerry 120, Bush 66 (22 tossup)
19) LOUISIANA (9 EV)
*2000: Bush 52.6, Gore 44.9
*9/2004 Average: Bush 51.5, Kerry 39.5 (2 polls)
Analysis: Maybe--MAYBE--with a conservative southern Dem, LA would be a battleground; but not this time around. However, I do think it's conceivable, depending on turnout, how much Breaux and Military Mary get involved, that Kerry will run a little closer than Gore.
Kerry 120, Bush 75 (22 toss-up)
20) Maine (4 EV)
*2000: Gore 49.1, Bush 44.0
*9/2004 Average: Kerry 45.5, Bush 43.5 (2 polls)
Analysis: I'd like to see more polling; of the two we have this month, one has it even, the other has Kerry up 4 (which puts him on course for the same margin as 2000, with undecideds). In any case, even if they don't love Kerry, Bush's numbers are terrible; no way an incumbent polling 43 and 44 after his convention wins. Maine stays with Kerry (all 4 EV, though one CD may be tight)
Kerry 124, Bush 75 (22 toss-up)
21) MARYLAND (10 EV)
*2000: Gore 56.6, Bush 40.8
*9/2004 Average: Kerry 50.0, Bush 45.0 (2 polls)
Poll Note: This includes the glaring SUSA outlier, which has Bush tied. Taking it out leaves only the ARG poll, which has it Kerry 52, Bush 43.
Analysis: Safe Kerry. Will it be tighter? Maybe a little bit. But I think this has more to do with a Bush bounce and not enough polls; if you take the five most recent pre-September Maryland polls, Kerry leads by 13 on average, which would put him on course for a Gore-type win.
Kerry 134, Bush 75 (22 toss-up)
22) MASSACHUSETTS (12 EV)
*2000: Gore 59.8, Bush 32.5
*9/2004 Average: Kerry 64.0, Bush 27.0 (1 poll)
Analysis: Bring on the turnout to pad the popular vote.
Kerry 146, Bush 75 (22 tossup)
23) MICHIGAN (17 EV)
*2000: Gore 51.3, Bush 46.1
*9/2004 Average: Kerry 48.7, Bush 42.5 (6 polls)
Poll Note: One partisan R and one ZI.
Analysis: Totally safe. I fully expect Kerry to run better than Gore here. He'll get more of the Arab-American vote just to start with. Bush polling around 43 during his bounce period; the chimp could lose by 10+ here.
Kerry 163, Bush 75 (22 tossup)
24) MINNESOTA (10 EV)
*2000: Gore 47.9, Bush 45.5
*9/2004 Average: Kerry 47.4, Bush 44.1 (7 polls)
Poll Note: One partisan R, and one ZI. ZI and the Star Tribune have Kerry up 9 and 10 points respectively. If you exclude those, then it's Kerry 46.0, Bush 45.2.
Analysis: It may be close, but MN isn't turning. Bush has too much ground to make up; he can't consistently get above 45 during his bubble; that's nearly a sure-fire loss. He may also be hurt by Badnarik, and possibly even by Nader. Kerry has to run ads here and campaign here occasionally, but in a tight race, he's got MN.
Kerry 173, Bush 75 (22 tossup)
25) MISSISSIPPI (6 EV)
*2000: Bush 57.6, Gore 40.7
*9/2004 Average: Bush 51.0, Kerry 42.0 (1 poll)
Analysis: Safe Bush, probably by about the same margin.
Kerry 173, Bush 81 (22 toss-up)
26) MISSOURI (11 EV)
*2000: Bush 50.4, Gore 47.1
*9/2004 Average: Bush 50.1, Kerry 43.9 (7 polls)
Poll Note: One ZI. The Gallup RV poll, which was the first done right after the convention, had Bush leading 53-42, the clear outlier of the group. If that poll is excluded, Bush leads 49.7-44.1.
Analysis: I'm not willing to say that MO is out of play, but Bush certainly leads here; if Kerry can cut the lead approximately in half (and some of that may happen via a natural erosion of Bush's bump, and generally increased national Kerry strength), the state moves back to a toss-up; but as it stands now, Bush will keep it.
Kerry 173, Bush 92 (22 toss-up)
27) MONTANA (3 EV)
*2000: Bush 58.4, Gore 33.4
*9/2004 Average: Bush 60, Kerry 32 (1 poll)
Analysis: Glad I don't live up there.
Kerry 173, Bush 95 (22 toss-up)
28 NEBRASKA (5 EV)
*2000: Bush 62.2, Gore 32.2
*9/2004 Average: Bush 61, Kerry 30 (1 poll)
Analysis: Seas of red.
Kerry 173, Bush 100 (22 toss-up)
29) NEVADA(5 EV)
*2000: Bush 49.5, Gore 46.0, Nader 2.5
*9/2004 Average: Bush 49.3, Kerry 46.0 (4 polls)
Poll Note: One ZI.
Analysis: This is one of the biggest states where I feel that LV models based on past turnout, and past party-ID are boosting Bush's poll numbers. All three of the non-ZI NV polls taken in September have included party breakdowns; in each of them, Repubs outnumber Dems by anywhere from 2-4%. But, we're told here on Kos by NevadaDem and others, that registered Democrats have surpassed registered Repubs recently. So we're likely seeing some over-representation. Additionally, throw in a pressing local issue like Yucca, and you've got added incentive for those new voters to show up. All in all, a formula for a classic toss-up that's going to come down to GOTV. I'm holding NV until the end.
Kerry 173, Bush 100 (27 tossup)
30) NEW HAMPSHIRE (4 EV)
*2000: Bush 48.1, Gore 46.8, Nader 3.9
*9/2004 Average: Bush 46.5, Kerry 46.0 (4 polls)
Poll Note: One ZI. The clear outlier in this group is the Mason Dixon Poll, which has Bush up 49-40. If you exclude that poll, the average becomes Kerry 48, Bush 45.7. Moreover, looking at the nine polls taken between July 1 and September 1, Kerry leads in each one.
Analysis: This is generally an R-leaning state, but more paleo-cons than fundies; these folks mostly want to be left alone, and have a strong independent streak. I think, in the end, Kerry's geographic proximity helps; folks know him and-IMHO--are more likely to see him as a viable alternative. You've also got a competitive Gov race, in which the Democratic candidate may well unseat the incumbent R, and that could play a role. But I'm calling NH a toss-up, and will allocate it at the end.
Kerry 173, Bush 100 (31 tossup)
31) NEW JERSEY (15 EV)
*2000: Gore 56.1, Bush 40.3
*9/2004 Average: Kerry 46.8, Bush 43.7 (6 polls)
Poll note: One ZI. The SUSA poll, which has Bush leading, is an extreme outlier. New Jersey has been polled around 25 times since April, and only this single poll shows a Bush lead. If you exclude it, Kerry leads 47.2-42.6.
Analysis: Obviously, lots of folks are worried about NJ. Message: Don't be (and I care). First of all, most of this polling comes either during or immediately after these two events: the 9/11 oriented convention right across the river, and then 9/11 itself. Unless you're from the metropolitian area, you're just not going to fully grasp the impact on polling that those two events could have had. Pre-9/11, this might have been a sign of national Kerry weakness; and while certainly a little bit of it is attributed to Kerry taking a national hit, most of it was the RNC and 9/11. It's isolated and it won't last. Neither campaign is spending here (though the Philly market crosses over); and the Jersey Girl endorsement will make a big difference if one is needed. NJ is completely safe unless, God forbid, we're attacked again. Also note that NJ broke really late for Gore in 2000; many of the earlier 2000 NJ polls had a complete toss-up. The final Quinnipiac NJ poll in 2000 had it Gore 49, Bush 41. Nothing to worry about here: but it will probably be closer. Even though we don't understand it, Bush does have some 9/11 capital here; and the economy has done awfully well (I believe NJ now has the highest per capita income in the country).
Kerry 188, Bush 100 (31 tossup)
32) NEW MEXICO (5 EV)
*2000: Gore 47.91, Bush 47.85
*9/2004 Average: Kerry 48.7, Bush 44.3 (3 polls)
Poll Note: One ZI; this poll has Kerry up 12, which makes it an outlier. If you exclude it, it's Bush 45.5, Kerry 45.0.
Analysis: NM appears to be pretty safe. Kerry has led here consistently the entire cycle; Bush's numbers, post-bounce, are awful. And you've got alousy economy and popular Dem governor. I need to see Bush's numbers higher before I can consider him winning here.
Kerry 193, Bush 100 (31 tossup)
33) NEW YORK (31 EV)
*2000: Gore 60.2, Bush 35.2
*9/2004 Average: Kerry 50.8, Bush 40.8 (5 polls)
Analysis: See NJ. Let the anniversary and convention fade a little bit. I'm not guaranteeing that Kerry wins here by 25 points, but it'll be at least in the high teens. Nothing to worry about.
Kerry 224, Bush 100 (31 toss-up)
34) NORTH CAROLINA (15 EV)
*2000: Bush 56.0, Gore, 43.2
*9/2004 Average: Bush 50.4, Kerry 45.0 (5 polls)
*Poll note: One ZI, and one Partisan D, which shows it 46-46. If you eliminate this poll, Bush leads 51.5-44.8 (though the Rasmussen poll may be an outlier in the other direction, showing Bush up 13)
Analysis: If Kerry manages to really take control of this race nationally, then NC is in play. Turn-out should be up, and it'll be closer, but in all likelihood, it stays red, and--for now--resources shouldn't be wasted here.
Kerry 224, Bush 115 (31 toss-up)
35) NORTH DAKOTA (3 EV)
*2000: Bush 60.7, Gore 33.0
*9/2004 average: Bush 62, Kerry 33 (1 poll)
Analysis: What can you say?
Kerry 224, Bush 118 (31 toss-up)
36) OHIO (20 EV)
*2000: Bush 50.0, Gore 46.5
*9/2004 average: Bush 49.8, Kerry 44.6 (9 polls)
Poll Note: One ZI, one Partisan R. I think that OH is the single largest state that the polls--especially LV polls--are really missing. First of all, seven of these nine polls have Bush leading between 1 and 8 points, while two have him over 10. If you remove those two polls (one of which is partisan R, the other having a MOE of +-5 and using a sample half as large as normal), the average becomes: Bush 48.9, Kerry 45.1.
Analysis: Bush is ahead here right now, but the question is, by how much? Seven of the nine polls are LV polls; these are almost surely missing the 200,000 newly registered Dems; moreover, if they're identifying voters based on past voting patterns, then they're completely missing any turn-out effect. Bush's job approval and favorables are lousy here; the state's lost more jobs than any other. Kerry has shown potential to cut into Bush's rural advantage. OH has shown it can be turned when it's contested hard ('92 and '96) It's gonna come down to turnout, and I'm calling OH a toss-up; I'll allocate it below.
Kerry 224, Bush 118 (51 toss-up)
37) OKLAHOMA (7 EV)
*2000: Bush 60.3, Gore 38.4
*9/2004 Average: Bush 59.8, Kerry 30.25 (4 polls)
Poll Note: Three partisan R polls; the one non-partisan, ARG, has it Bush 55, Kerry 38.
Analysis: Hopefully lots of split-tickets here.
Kerry 224, Bush 125 (51 toss-up)
38) OREGON (7 EV)
*2000: Gore 47.0, Bush 46.5, Nader 5.04
*9/2004 Average: Kerry 49.5, Bush 44.5 (6 polls)
Poll Note: One Zogby Interactive. The ZI has Kerry up 12; probably a slight outlier. But Mason-Dixon has Bush up 4, the only one of the batch with a Bush lead. If you take both out, you get Kerry 50.0, Bush 44.5.
Analysis: The establishment of both OR and WA as safe blue is a big advantage for Kerry, one that Gore didn't have. Bush just isn't liked up there.
Kerry 231, Bush 125 (51 toss-up)
39) PENNSYLVANIA (21 EV)
*2000: Gore 50.6, Bush 46.4
*9/2004 average: Kerry 47.1, Bush 47.1 (9 polls)
Poll Note: One ZI, one partisan R; the partisan R is the most outlying of the group. Eliminating it converts the average to Kerry 47.4, Bush 46.9.
Analysis: Bush has been here more than any other state during his presidency. It was always the #1 GOP pick-up target. And yet, the numbers are awful; Bush isn't at 50 in any of these polls; six of the nine have Bush at 47 or below; and many of these were taken immediately post-convention. Bush's average approval numbers in the state are below 50. Gore won solidly here, and Kerry has led pretty consistently for most of the cycle. THK has some pull in Pittsburgh; Rendell has a GREAT machine, particularly adept at turning out the urban vote; the state has been ravaged by the loss of manufacturing jobs. Bush threw his weight behind Specter in the Senate primary, and it was hardly impressive. Also note--importantly--that the trend is back in Kerry's direction; he leads in the three most recently released polls. If Bush can't get above 50 now, he's not going to. PA stays blue.
Kerry 252, Bush 125 (51 toss-up)
- RHODE ISLAND (4 EV)
- Gore 61.0, Bush 32.0
9/2004 Average: Kerry 56.5, Bush 33.5 (2 polls)
Analysis: As blue as the sky.
Kerry 256, Bush 125 (51 toss-up)
41) SOUTH CAROLINA (8 EV)
*2000: Bush 56.8, Gore 41.0
*9/2004 Average: Bush 52.3, Kerry 40.7 (3 polls)
Poll Note: One Partisan D poll, that actually shows the biggest Bush lead of the three.
Analysis: Great turnout would be huge for Tennenbaum. The state's economy has been ravaged; Kerry won't win it, but I wouldn't be shocked if Bush only wins by around 10.
Kerry 256, Bush 133 (51 tossup)
42) SOUTH DAKOTA (3 EV)
*2000: Bush 60.3, Gore 37.6
*9/2004 Average: Bush 56.0, Kerry 40.0 (2 polls)
Analysis: Herseth and Daschle make this a key state on 11/2, but it's clearly going for Bush.
Kerry 256, Bush 136 (51 toss-up)
43) TENNESSEE (11 EV)
*2000: Bush 51.1, Gore 47.3
*9/2004 average: Bush 51.7, Kerry 42.0 (3 polls)
Poll Note: One ZI.
Analysis: Somewhat like NC; a big national Kerry win, and maybe it's in play. But not right now. Stays red.
Kerry 256, Bush 147 (51 toss-up)
44) TEXAS (34 EV)
*2000: Bush 59.3, Gore 38.0
*9/2004 Average: Bush 58, Kerry 36 (1 poll)
Analysis: I'd love to see Bush pull less than he pulled in 2000, and it wouldn't shock me if it happens. Give TX 10 more years, and it'll be back in play.
Kerry 256, Bush 181 (51 toss-up)
45) UTAH (5 EV)
*2000: Bush 66.8, Kerry 26.3
*9/2004 average: Bush 64.5, Kerry 26.5 (2 polls)
Analysis: This one is right on track.
Kerry 256, Bush 186 (51 toss-up)
46) VERMONT (3 EV)
*2000: Gore 50.6, Bush 40.7
*9/2004 Average: Kerry 50, Bush 40 (1 poll)
Analysis: Nice and safe.
Kerry 259, Bush 186 (51 toss-up)
47) VIRGINIA (13 EV)
*2000: Bush 52.5, Gore 44.4
*9/2004 average: Bush 49.7, Kerry 45.0 (3 polls)
Poll Note: One ZI
Analysis: VA is clearly trending blue, and it's no almost no doubt going to be closer here than in 2000. I think it's in play, and Kerry could win it; but if the national vote is a close as I think it'll be, then VA stays Bush, by around 52-48.
Kerry 259, Bush 199 (51 toss-up)
48) WASHINGTON (11 EV)
*2000: Gore 50.2, Bush 44.6, Nader 4.1
*9/2004 Average: Kerry 50.7, Bush 43.8 (6 polls)
Poll Note: One ZI and one partisan R. The R poll shows the slimmest Kerry margin.
Analysis: As noted above, Kerry is in a strong position, in that OR and WA are largely safe. Gore didn't have that benefit. Kerry is fortunate here, as all of his defensive resources need to go largely to PA, WI, and IA. WA puts Kerry over the top in my little analysis.
Kerry 270, Bush 199 (51 toss-up)
49) WEST VIRGINIA (5 EV)
*2000: Bush 51.9, Gore 44.6
*9/2004 Average: Bush 48.0, Kerry 44.3 (4 polls)
Poll Note: One ZI; the ZI poll is a true outlier, showing Bush up 12. Of the other three, Mason-Dixon has Bush up a point, ARG has it tied, and Rasmussen has Bush up 6. Averaging those three gives you Bush 47.0, Kerry 44.7.
Analysis: Huge advantage for Dems in registration, but obviously very conservative Dems. Great Dem machine, that wasn't utilized in 2000. Byrd loathes Bush and is absolutely beloved in the state. Bush, a fully defined incumbent, post-convention, is running 3-4 points behind his 2000 total, and he's below 50. Tough economic situation. Makings of an excellent ground-game, with ACT in the state (also be sure to see DC Democrat's recent diary). WV is 50-50 IMHO. Add it to the toss-up column.
Kerry 270, Bush 199 (56 toss-up)
50) WISCONSIN (10 EV)
*2000: Gore 47.8, Bush 47.7, Nader 3.6
*9/2004 Average: Bush 48.1, Kerry 46.0 (7 polls)
Poll note: One ZI, one partisan R, neither of which appear to be outlying beyond the MOE.
Analysis: Clearly, WI is the most vulnerable Gore state, and today's ABC News poll was disappointing. That being said, I'm not ready to say that it really leans Bush. Bush led in lots of WI polls in 2000, particularly after his convention. Moreover, while the pollsters are serving up Nader as a choice in these polls, they're leaving out Badnarik and Perotouka, both of whom, in my view, are likely to take from Bush. Kerry won't need 50 to win here (neither of, course, will George, but I don't think the third party vote is gonna take much from Kerry). Moreover, as Ben Masel notes, Feingold's being on the ballot ought to really help turn out the base. I'm calling WI a toss-up.
Kerry 270, Bush 199 (66 toss-up)
51) WYOMING (3 EV)
*2000: Bush 67.8, Gore 27.7
*9/2004 Average: Bush 65, Kerry 29 (1 poll)
Kerry 270, Bush 202 (66 toss-up)
Analysis: None really needed.
Totals before Toss-ups: KERRY 270, BUSH 202
The Toss-up States:
*Arkansas 6 EV
*Colorado 9 EV
*Iowa 7 EV
*Ohio 20 EV
*Nevada 5 EV
*New Hampshire 4 EV
*West Virginia 5 EV
*Wisconsin 10 EV
Now, allocating these, largely from my gut:
*Arkansas; it'll stay Bush, barely. Clinton might not be recovered enough to really park him here, and I don't think that Kerry really has the time or resources to put in here what he'd need to move it.
Kerry 270, Bush 208
*Colorado: again, stays Bush, barely, but I won't be surprised at this point if it turns. Very possibly a legit blue state in 2008.
Kerry 270, Bush 217
*Iowa: stays Kerry. Bush should be over 50 here now if he wants to win, and I still think Kerry's gonna get some help from Vilsack/Harkin; his guys know Iowa.
Kerry 277. Bush 217
*Ohio: if you held a gun to my head right now, I'd say that Bush squeaks by. And I'm basing that entirely on polls that I'm pretty confident aren't telling the whole story. If I were really going from the gut and anecdotal reports, I'd say it goes Kerry. But let's give it to Bush now, and revisit it again shortly.
Kerry 277, Bush 237
*Nevada: The big surprise of 2004; all the newly registered Dems, changing demographics, and a hot-button local issues turn the state blue.
Kerry 282, Bush 237
*New Hampshire; it's a toss-up really only because of the large numbers of R's; I definitely think it's leaning Kerry right now.
Kerry 286, Bush 237
*West Virginia--another surprise; the large Dem machinery, Byrd's late influence, and the refusal of enough folks to vote against their economic interests, turns WV back blue.
Kerry 291, Bush 237
*Wisconsin--I've got to give it to Bush right now. But I do so with awfully strong reservations; it'll be razor thin, and this one needs to be revisited in a couple months.
Kerry 291, Bush 247
My apologies for such a long post. Bottom line, I think Kerry's position is strong; I think he can without OH; and if he loses both OH and FL, I still think he's very much in the game, but he'd need to hold WI.