Thought it was time for another swing state polling roundup. For an abbreviated list of battleground states, I've averaged all of the non-partisan polls conducted during the month of October. For results, see below. Methodology:
- Straight mean average of non-partisan polls conducted in Ohio
- For selected states, I've allocated undecideds
- When I had a choice in a poll between RV and LV, I used RV
- I've largely ignorned Nader and Badnarik so the results below should really be taken as the split of the two party vote. I'm operating under the assumption right now that the third parties are going to effect the candidates relatively equally.
Results:
*Ohio (8 polls, including one Zogby Interactive)
Kerry 47.8, Bush 47.5
60% Undecideds f/Kerry: Kerry 50.6, Bush 49.4
70% Undecideds f/Kerry: Kerry 51.1, Bush 48.9
80% Undecideds f/Kerry: Kerry 51.6, Bush 48.4
Poll note: Kerry is ahead in six of eight polls; of the two polls with Bush ahead, one is a clear outlier from Fox; Bush under 50 in seven of eight polls (exactly 50 in Zogby interactive).
*Florida: (8 polls, including one ZI)
Bush 47.6, Kerry 47.0
60% Undecideds f/Kerry: Kerry 50.2, Bush 49.8
70% Undecideds f/Kerry: Kerry 50.8, Bush 49.2
80% Undecideds f/Kerry: Kerry 51.3, Bush 48.7
Poll Note: Very noticeable shift towards Kerry in the most recent of the polls.
*Pennsylvania (6 polls, including one ZI)
Kerry 49.7, Bush 44.7
*Wisconsin (4 polls, including one ZI)
Kerry 47.8, Bush 46.4
60% Undecideds f/Kerry: Kerry 51.3, Bush 48.7
70% Undecideds f/Kerry: Kerry 51.9, Bush 48.1
80% Undecideds f/Kerry: Kerry 52.4, Bush 47.6
*Iowa (6 polls, including one ZI)
Kerry 48.5, Bush 46.8
60% Undecideds f/Kerry: Kerry 51.3, Bush 48.7
70% Undecideds f/Kerry: Kerry 51.8, Bush 48.2
80% Undecideds f/Kerry: Kerry 52.3, Bush 47.7
*Minnesota (4 polls, including one ZI)
Kerry 48.8, Bush 44
*Michigan (4 polls, including one ZI)
Kerry 50.5, Bush 44.2
*Oregon (4 polls, including one ZI)
Kerry 52.0, Bush 43.8
*New Mexico (3 polls, including one ZI)
Kerry 48.7, Bush 44.7
*Colorado (6 polls, including one ZI)
Bush 49, Kerry 45.2
*80% undecideds for Kerry: Bush 50.2, Kerry 49.8
*Nevada (3 polls, including one ZI)
Bush 48.7, Kerry 45.3
*80 Undecideds for Kerry: Kerry 50.1, Bush 49.9
*Missouri (2 polls, including one ZI)
Bush 50.0, Kerry 47.5
*West Virginia (2 polls, one ZI and one Partisan D--had to use it to have two data points)
Bush 49.0, Kerry 46.5
My Current Predictions (assigning everything, no tossups:
Bush wins:
*Colorado by a hair
*West Virgina by a hair (and really only b/c Kerry pulled the ads, I think Kerry could win here)
*Missouri, by about 2 points
Kerry wins:
*Ohio--by 1-2 points
*Florida--by 1-2 points (if votes are counted somewhat accurately)
*Pennsylvania--by 6-7 points
*Wisconsin--by 1-2 points
*Iowa--by 1-2 points
*Min--by 4-5 points
*Michigan--by 7-8 points
*Oregon--by 10 points
*NM--by 2-3 points
*Nevada--by less than a point
*New Hampshire--by 2-3 points
Final Tally: Kerry 316, Bush 222